Shipping in 2026: the return to Suez, the Black Sea closures and what to agree before loading

Two sea routes decide much of the cost and timing of the cargo we trade into Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The Red Sea and the Suez Canal link Europe, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean with the Gulf, East Africa and Asia. The Black Sea is where much of the world's wheat and sunflower oil is loaded. In 2026 the first route is reopening and the second has closed down. This note describes both and sets out what buyers should agree before cargo is loaded. Figures are as reported up to 26 September 2026.

The Red Sea: lines return to Suez

Since the end of 2023 many ships avoided the Red Sea because of attacks on shipping, and sailed round the Cape of Good Hope instead, which added one to two weeks to voyages between Asia and Europe. In 2026 that has started to reverse.

On 16 September gCaptain reported that CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and COSCO had all returned container services to the Suez Canal to some degree. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd were moving four more of their Gemini services (AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2) back from the Cape route, and COSCO's OOCL Portugal made the line's first southbound canal transit since the crisis began. According to the Suez Canal Authority, container ship net tonnage through the canal reached 72.1 million tons in the first eight months of 2026, up 54.2% from 46.7 million tons a year earlier.

The risk has not gone away. In September, Houthi forces captured the port of Mocha and moved onto islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. They have said their declared naval blockade now applies only to Saudi vessels and that they would honour a ceasefire with the United States. Shipping lines are weighing those statements against the new positions on the strait.

For agricultural cargo this matters in three ways:

• Container freight. Rice, sugar, sesame, pulses and packed oils often move in containers. A return to Suez shortens transit between Asia, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, and between Europe and the Gulf and East Africa.
• Bulk cargo. Bulk carriers with grain or sugar make their own decisions voyage by voyage, based on the owner's and insurer's view of the risk.
• Port Sudan and the Red Sea ports. Cargo from Sudan and to Red Sea destinations cannot avoid the Red Sea at all, so its insurance cost follows the security situation closely.

The Black Sea: grain ports disrupted

The Black Sea is the reverse. Shipments from Russia's Sea of Azov ports stopped in mid-July, and port facilities in the Azov and Black Sea basin have been largely closed since mid-August after attacks on vessels and damage to terminals, according to Reuters. In Ukraine, strikes on the Odesa ports in late July effectively halted shipments for several weeks; Ukraine normally ships more than 90% of its grain exports by sea.

Exporters are rerouting. Russian grain is going north to the Baltic ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga, and SovEcon estimates that Baltic terminals, including those in Latvia and Lithuania, can handle up to about 0.5 million tonnes a month, a small fraction of the southern ports' normal volume. Ukrainian grain and sunflower oil are moving by rail, road and the Danube ports. The International Grains Council expects world grain trade to fall in 2026/27 partly because of these disruptions. Our note on Black Sea wheat covers the effect on wheat supply.

For buyers in Egypt, North Africa and the Middle East, Baltic loading means a much longer voyage than from Novorossiysk or Odesa, and ships that do load in the Black Sea pay additional war-risk insurance premiums.

What to agree before loading

When routes and ports change quickly, the contract is where the risk is shared. These are the points to settle before cargo is loaded:

• Load and discharge ports. Name the contract port and list acceptable alternatives. Say how any difference in freight is shared if the seller has to load elsewhere.
• Route. For some cargo the route matters as much as the port: via Suez or round the Cape. Agree who decides and how a change affects the delivery period.
• Laycan and delivery period. Allow realistic windows. A delivery period that was comfortable last year may not be this year.
• War-risk insurance. Additional premiums for the Black Sea and the Red Sea are charged per voyage and change often. State who pays them.
• Port closure. Agree what happens if the contract port closes: an alternative port, an extension, or cancellation. Relying on a general force majeure clause alone often leads to disputes.
• Trade terms. Under FOB the buyer books and pays for the ship; under CFR and CIF the seller does, and under CIF the seller also insures the cargo. In all three the risk of loss passes to the buyer once the goods are on board, so agree separately who pays for delays, rerouting and extra premiums. Our commodity pages explain the terms we offer for each product.
• Documents. A change of port or route changes the paperwork. The bill of lading, certificate of origin, phytosanitary certificate and inspection report must all match the cargo actually shipped. Our note on the documents that keep agricultural cargo moving explains what each one does.

What to watch

Whether the Houthis keep to their stated limits, how quickly bulk carriers follow container lines back to Suez, whether the Black Sea ports reopen, and war-risk premium levels for both seas.

If you are planning shipments for the coming months, tell us the commodity, volume and destination and we will set out the routes and terms that are open.