Black Sea wheat in 2026/27: large crops, slow ports and what importers should plan for

The Black Sea is the largest source of the world's exported wheat, and the 2026/27 season shows how much the region's ports matter as well as its fields. Russia and Ukraine have harvested good crops, yet their shipments since July are among the slowest in more than a decade. This note sets out what has happened, what the main market bodies expect, and what buyers of milling wheat and flour can do about it. Figures are as reported up to 25 September 2026.

A good harvest that cannot leave

Russia's agriculture ministry reported that by 18 September farmers had harvested 120 million tonnes of grain, including more than 90 million tonnes of wheat, with yields higher than last year. Supply on the farm is not the problem.

Moving it is. Shipments from Russia's Sea of Azov ports stopped in mid-July. Port facilities in the Azov and Black Sea basin have been largely closed since mid-August after attacks on vessels and damage to terminals, according to Reuters. In early September SovEcon reported only limited loadings at Tuapse and Novorossiysk, on smaller vessels, and exporters are sending grain north to the Baltic ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga. SovEcon estimates that the Baltic route, with terminals in Latvia and Lithuania, can handle up to about 0.5 million tonnes a month, less than a tenth of what the southern ports normally move.

The result is a very slow start to the season:

• SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports for July to September at about 5.4 million tonnes, 53% below the same quarter last year and 58% below the five-year average of 12.9 million tonnes. It may be the lowest quarter since 2010/11.
• September shipments are expected at a little over 2 million tonnes (IKAR, SovEcon and Rusagrotrans all put them between 2.0 and 2.2 million tonnes), against 4.6 million tonnes a year earlier.
• SovEcon cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports for the full 2026/27 season by 3.2 million tonnes, to 41.4 million tonnes.

Russian 12.5% protein wheat for November delivery from the Baltic ports was quoted at 268 US dollars a tonne free on board in the week to 22 September. That price is lower than many buyers expect in a supply shock: grain that cannot be exported builds up inside Russia and weighs on its domestic and export quotes. The cost for an importer, though, also includes the longer voyage from the Baltic and the risk premium on any Black Sea loading.

Ukraine: ports under pressure, a lower export forecast

Ukraine ships more than 90% of its grain exports by sea, and most of it normally leaves through the Greater Odesa ports. Strikes on the Odesa port area in late July effectively halted those shipments for several weeks. On 12 August the agriculture minister, Taras Vysotskyi, said the government was now targeting grain exports of 38 to 40 million tonnes for 2026/27, down from an earlier 43 million tonnes. APK-Inform's revised forecast of 39.4 million tonnes includes 13.5 million tonnes of wheat.

Grain is also moving west by rail and road, and through the Danube ports, but these routes carry far less than the seaports. Storage inside Ukraine is filling up: the government warned that the disruption could leave a grain storage shortfall of about 11 million tonnes.

What the market bodies say

The International Grains Council's September report (17 September 2026) describes "severe disruptions" to Black Sea exports that have kept global wheat flows unusually slow. It expects world grain trade in 2026/27 to fall to 451 million tonnes, from 467 million tonnes last season, and notes that shipping suspensions have mainly affected wheat. Its Grains and Oilseeds Index rose 6% in the month to a three-year high, about 20% above a year earlier.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 116.3 points in August, up 2.2% from July. FAO pointed to robust demand, weather concerns in some producing regions and "continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export flows". World wheat prices rose 2.6% in the month.

In SovEcon's words, the market has so far been slow to price the Black Sea supply shock, "but this cannot last indefinitely". If the ports stay disrupted into the northern winter, normally a busy shipping period for both countries, the shortfall will grow.

What it means for buyers in Egypt, North Africa and the Middle East

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer at about 12 to 13 million tonnes a year, relies heavily on Black Sea wheat. Since late 2024 its state purchases have been handled by Mostakbal Misr, which buys mainly through direct deals rather than the public tenders that the General Authority for Supply Commodities used to run. That gives the buyer more room to move quickly between origins when one of them is disrupted.

Private millers and importers across North Africa, the Gulf and East Africa face the same choices on a smaller scale. These are the practical points we would work through with any buyer:

• Lead times. Allow more time between contract and arrival. Baltic loading adds sailing days to Egypt and the Red Sea, and Black Sea laycans are less certain than usual.
• Load port options. Where the contract names an origin rather than a single port, agree in advance which alternative ports are acceptable and how any extra freight is shared.
• Origin flexibility. Romanian, Bulgarian and French wheat can replace part of the Black Sea supply for many mills, but check the specification (protein, wet gluten, falling number, moisture) against your milling needs before switching. Argentina and Australia harvest their new crops towards the end of the year.
• War-risk insurance. Additional premiums for voyages into the Black Sea change often. The contract should say who pays them.
• Flour as an option. For some buyers, milled flour from a working origin can bridge a gap in grain supply. It needs its own specification, packaging and documents.
• Documents. Changing port or origin changes the paperwork: certificates of origin, phytosanitary certificates and inspection reports all have to match the new cargo. Our note on the documents that keep agricultural cargo moving explains what each one does.

What to watch next

The key signals over the next few months are whether the Black Sea ports reopen or stay shut, the monthly export estimates from SovEcon and IKAR, Ukraine's export figures, and the Southern Hemisphere harvests in Argentina and Australia. We will update this note as the season develops.

If you are planning wheat or flour purchases for the coming quarter, tell us the specification, volume and destination and we will set out the origins and routes that are open. See our wheat and wheat flour pages, or start a trade.