Rice in 2026/27: a smaller Indian crop, record stocks and firmer export prices

Rice buyers have had an easy two years. After India lifted its export restrictions in 2024 and early 2025, supplies were plentiful and prices fell. The 2026/27 season is less comfortable: India's monsoon has been weak, a strong El Niño is building, and prices have started to rise. At the same time India holds very large stocks, which should keep the market supplied. This note sets out where things stand for buyers of non-basmati and basmati rice. Figures are as reported up to 26 September 2026.

A smaller Indian crop

India is the world's largest rice exporter. Most of its rice is the kharif crop, planted with the summer monsoon. This year the monsoon has been weak: India's Department of Economic Affairs reported an all-India rainfall deficit of 13% as of 19 August, and the India Meteorological Department expected September rainfall to be below normal. By 21 August paddy had been planted on 34.48 million hectares, against 36.07 million hectares a year earlier.

The International Grains Council's September report expects world rice production in 2026/27 to fall for the first time in more than a decade, and says India's kharif crop is significantly smaller. Our note on El Niño and crop supply explains why forecasters expect the weather pattern to stay strong into 2027.

Record stocks keep exports open

The smaller crop does not mean India will stop exporting. Its government stocks are very large after several big harvests. In June the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast record Indian rice exports of 25 million tonnes in 2026/27, with ending stocks still high at about 51 million tonnes. It said the government was unlikely to impose export restrictions because stocks were "more than sufficient" for market interventions.

The IGC shares that view of trade. It expects world rice trade to reach a new high of 61.7 million tonnes in 2027, up 3%.

That is the main difference from 2023, when India banned exports of non-basmati white rice and world prices jumped. The situation can still change if the crop turns out much smaller than expected or domestic prices rise sharply, so export policy is worth watching month by month.

Prices are firming

Export prices have risen from the lows of early 2026:

• In February, 5% broken white rice was quoted at about 410 US dollars a tonne free on board from Thailand, 363 to 367 US dollars from Vietnam and 350 to 354 US dollars from India (USDA figures reported by The Nation).
• On 20 September, Thai 5% broken rice was quoted at 477 to 481 US dollars a tonne and Indian 5% broken at 375 to 379 US dollars. Vietnamese fragrant 5% broken rice was 440 to 445 US dollars and jasmine rice 526 to 530 US dollars, according to the Vietnam Food Association.

Indian rice remains the lowest-priced of the main origins, which is one reason its export volume stays high. Thai rice carries a premium, partly because of a strong baht.

Indian export rules to check

Indian non-basmati rice can be exported without a ban or minimum export price, but there are procedures to follow:

• Contract registration. Non-basmati rice exports are allowed only once the contract is registered with APEDA, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority.
• Inspection certificates. On 10 April 2026 the Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued Notification 07/2026-27, amending the export policy conditions for rice, including the inspection certificates needed for exports to European countries.

Policies change, so we confirm the current rules for each contract before it is signed.

What buyers in Africa and the Middle East should plan for

West and East African markets buy mainly parboiled and white non-basmati rice, much of it from India, while Gulf buyers take large volumes of basmati. For both, we suggest:

• Cover further ahead. Fixing part of the first half of 2027's needs now reduces the risk of buying into a tighter market later.
• A second origin. Qualify Thai, Vietnamese or Pakistani rice alongside Indian, so a change in Indian policy or price does not stop your supply.
• Clear specifications. Agree broken-grain percentage, moisture, chalky and damaged grains, and for parboiled rice the colour, in the contract. A difficult season can change grain quality.
• Independent inspection. Have the cargo sampled and checked at loading against the agreed specification.
• Packing and marking. Agree bag type, weight and marking early, especially for private-label rice.

See our rice page for the grades and origins we work with, or send us your specification with volume and destination.