Edible oils at a four-year high: palm, soy and sunflower oil going into 2027

World edible oil prices have risen for three months in a row and are at their highest since mid-2022. For importers of palm, soybean and sunflower oil in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, four developments explain most of it: Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the El Niño weather pattern, disruption to Black Sea ports and, most recently, India's duty cut. This note takes each in turn and ends with how we think about crude versus refined oil. Figures are as reported up to 26 September 2026.

Where prices stand

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 196.9 points in August 2026, up 0.6% from July. It was the third monthly increase in a row and the highest level since June 2022. FAO said higher world palm and soy oil prices more than offset lower sunflower and rapeseed oil quotations, and linked the rise in palm oil to strong import demand and concern about El Niño's effect on production in Southeast Asia.

Palm oil: B50 and El Niño

Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil producer. Its B50 programme, which requires diesel to contain 50% palm-based biodiesel, took effect in July 2026 after earlier delays. More palm oil used for fuel at home means less available for export.

In June the Palm Oil Strategic Policy Institute (Paspi) said prices could reach 1,500 US dollars a tonne in the second half of 2026 if B50 and El Niño tightened supply together. In September, research reported by The Star expected B50 to keep crude palm oil prices firm through 2027, with El Niño a particular supply risk for 2027 because dry weather affects palm yields with a delay.

Indonesia's export charges add to the landed cost. For September 2026 the government set the crude palm oil reference price at 1,007.51 US dollars a tonne, which put the export duty at 148 US dollars a tonne and the export levy at 12.5% of the reference price, about 125.94 US dollars a tonne. The reference price is reset every month, so buyers should check the rate that applies to the month of shipment.

Sunflower oil: big crops, blocked ports

Sunflower oil is a different story. Russia and Ukraine grow most of the world's exported sunflower oil, and APK-Inform expected large crops in 2026: about 13.4 million tonnes of sunflower seed in Ukraine, a three-year high, and more than 20 million tonnes in Russia, which would be a record.

The difficulty is getting the oil out. In the second half of July, attacks on ports halted a large share of Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil shipments through the Black Sea and Azov Sea. APK-Inform estimated that combined August exports could fall to about 350,000 tonnes, against 579,000 tonnes in July. Offers for August delivery were quoted at 1,380 to 1,400 US dollars a tonne free on board for Ukrainian oil and 1,400 to 1,410 US dollars for Russian oil, including a premium for logistics risk. Exporters are using rail, road, the Danube ports and containers, but these carry less than the seaports.

For buyers this means sunflower oil supply is less a question of the crop and more a question of which ports and routes are working in the month you need it.

Soybean oil

Soybean oil prices rose alongside palm oil in August, according to FAO. South America, led by Argentina and Brazil, is the main source of exported soybean oil, and its prices follow both the soybean crush and demand for biofuels. Soybean oil can replace part of the palm or sunflower oil in some uses, which links the three markets.

India's duty cut on 24 September

India is the world's largest importer of edible oils, so its duties move world demand. On 24 September 2026 the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution announced a cut in the basic customs duty on crude edible oils, citing the sharp rise in international prices and in domestic retail prices:

• crude sunflower oil: from 10% to nil;
• crude soybean oil and crude palm oil: from 10% to 5%.

Duties on refined oils were cut as well. The government said it kept a duty differential of 19.25% between crude and refined oils, to support refining in India and discourage imports of refined oil. It also asked the industry to pass the cut on to consumers straight away.

Lower Indian duties tend to support Indian buying, which can add to demand for the same palm, soy and sunflower cargoes that buyers in Africa and the Middle East are looking for.

Crude or refined: how to choose

Importers often ask whether to import crude oil and refine it locally, or buy refined, bleached and deodorised oil ready for packing. There is no single answer, but these are the points we work through:

• Duty at destination. Like India, many countries charge less on crude oil than on refined oil. Check the current rates for your market, as they change.
• Refining capacity. Crude oil needs a refinery at or near the destination. Without one, refined oil in bulk or packed form is the practical choice.
• Shelf life and transit time. Refined oil has a limited shelf life once packed. Long or uncertain voyages, such as those caused by rerouting, favour shipping crude or bulk refined oil and packing at destination.
• Specification. Free fatty acids, moisture and impurities for crude oil; colour, peroxide value and free fatty acids for refined oil. Agree them in the contract and have them checked by an independent inspector at loading.
• Fortification and labelling rules. Some markets require vitamin fortification or specific labelling for packed cooking oil. These rules apply to refined, packed products.
• Packaging. Bulk vessel, flexitank in containers, drums or consumer packs. Each carries different freight and handling costs.

What to watch

The monthly Indonesian reference price and levy, B50 stock draw in Indonesia, El Niño rainfall in Southeast Asia, whether Black Sea ports reopen for sunflower oil, and India's import pace after the duty cut. We will update this note as they change.

See our pages for palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil, or send us your requirement with the grade, volume, packing and destination.